Looking forward to 2050, the world will only lose forest of less than 34 million hectares if the international society supports oil palm expansion. But if the world chooses not to support the palm oil to meet the global need for vegetable oils, the world will lose forests more than 340 million hectares or even more.

The global consumption of vegetable oils will increase along with the global population growth and economic growth. The highest per capita consumption of vegetable oils (besides biofuel) is currently seen in developed countries in Europe and North America, which reaches around 37 Kg. It is predicted that the consumption in the developed countries will no longer increase in the future.

In India and China, whose population accounts for about 50 percent of the global population, per capita consumption is still low at around 20 kilogram. Along with the income growth in the two countries, their per capita consumption will approach the level of per capita consumption in the developed countries towards 2050.

With the global population in 2050 is projected to reach around 9.2 billion, the global people will need 340 million tons of vegetable oils or an increase of around 170 million tons of vegetable oils from the current level. It will even increase higher than that if the consumption growth for biofuel is faster than expected. How to provide the additional supply to meet the rising need for the vegetable oils?

Currently, there are around 17 kinds of vegetable oils available to meet the global need. But 15 kinds of them (including rapeseed and sunflower) could not be expected to increase production due to limited land areas and genetic make–up. That means, the world will only rely on two vegetable oils, namely soybeans (from South America) and palm oil (from tropical areas) to fulfill the rising global need for vegetable oils. Now the question is whether the world will choose to increase production of soybean or palm oil?

If the world chooses to increase the production of soybean, then with the soybean productivity at only 0.5 Kg per hectare it will need an additional land area of around 340 million hectares. But if the world chooses to increase the production of palm oil, with its productivity of 5.0 tons per hectare it will only need an additional land area of 34 million hectare. Which one is better for the world?

If we choose to expand soybean plantations, there should be new plantations of soybean in South America, especially in Brazil, Argentine and other neighboring countries. The soybean expansion will mean new conversion of forests (deforestation) at the size of 340 million hectares. But if the world chooses the palm oil expansion, the forest conversion (deforestation) will only be 34 million hectares in Indonesia, Central Africa and Papua New Guinea.

Which one will be chosen by the international society? The choice of losing 340 million hectares of tropical forests in South America or the choice of losing only 34 million hectares of tropical forests in Indonesia, Central Africa and  Papua New Guinea? Considering the need for conservation of global environment, the world will certainly choose the lesser loss of forests at only 34 million hectares for oil palm expansion. Even it can be made less, as the productivity of oil palm plantations can be still increased that lead to less deforestation.

Considering the undeniable facts, palm oil should not be restricted. It should be respected by willing to pay better price of palm oil to allow producers to get profit that is needed for increasing productivity. If the productivity of palm oil increases, the world will only lose less than 34 million hectares of forests.

Conversely, if the palm oil is hindered, global deforestation will reach higher than 340 million hectares to fulfill the additional supply of vegetable oils. It is also possible that the global society will even lose bigger size of forests in South America. (*)

Source : Indonesiakita.or.id |  Featured image via Scubazoo.com