Is it true that oil palm plantations cause flooding? Analysis of flooding based on the latest BNPB 2025 Data.
The issue of oil palm plantations as the primary cause of flooding has frequently emerged in various regions of Indonesia. But very often such conclusion is drawn without considering empirical data, hydrological studies, and national disaster statistics. To provide a more objective and scientific description, this article reviews the latest data from the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) as of December 2025 and compares it with a map of Indonesia’s palm oil production centers.
Floods: Global Hydrometeorological Phenomenon
Flooding is part of the hydrometeorological dynamics, which is influenced by global climate change, increase of extreme rainfall, and land-use changes. The IPCC report (2021) had proven that extreme flooding events had been rising sharply worldwide—including in countries without oil palm plantations, such as Germany, China, and Japan¹.
Therefore, flooding cannot be attributed to a single commodity like palm oil, but rather to a combination of global and local factors.
BNPB Data 2025: Provinces With Highest Flood Cases Not Palm Centers
According to BNPB data released through Katadata’s Databoks, as of November 28, 2025, 1,502 flood incidents had been recorded across Indonesia².
Interestingly, the three provinces with the highest number of flooding cases were:
Following is a list of the 10 provinces with the highest number of flood disasters nationally, as of November 28, 2025:
- West Java: 168 incidents
- East Java: 154 incidents
- Central Java: 132 incidents
- Central Sulawesi: 98 incidents
- Lampung: 80 incidents
- North Sumatra: 75 incidents
- Riau: 74 incidents
- West Nusa Tenggara: 70 incidents
- Banten: 55 incidents.
The three provinces with the highest flood intensity are on the island of Java, which has no oil palm plantation centers.
Conversely, oil palm-producing provinces such as:
- Riau (74 incidents)
- West Kalimantan (approximately 40 incidents)
- East Kalimantan (approximately 30 incidents)
are not among the provinces with the highest flood occurrences.
This indicates that flood frequency is not directly correlated with the presence of oil palm plantations.
Causes of Flood multidimensional, not just singular
Scientific assessment shows flooding is influenced by various factors, which include:
Extreme Rainfalls
BMKG reported the increase of extreme rainfall intensity in Indonesia during the last five years as the impact of global climate change⁴.
The decrease of land absorption due to urbanization
Java island has seen the highest urbanization rate in Indonesia⁵, causing massive change of land uses which resulted in the decline of land ability to absorb water.
Damage and sedimentation of watershed (DAS)
The report of the environment and forestry ministry (KLHK) in 2023 shows that 118 DAS are in critical condition ⁶.
Population density and space pressure
The provinces with the highest flooding incidents are also the most densely populated, which exacerbates environmental pressures.
There is no literature that identifies oil palm as the only cause of flooding. Its impacts depend largely on governance practices, not the commodity itself.
International Study: Oil Palm Plantations can support water infiltration if managed well
CIFOR research (2020) found that oil palm plantations aged 5–25 years have:
- thick surface litters, which slows surface runoff
- increased soil porosity, resulting in better water infiltration than bare land⁷
This means that the impact of oil palm on flooding is not automatically negative, but rather depends on:
- land management
- riparian maintenance
- protection of conservation area
- watershed conservation
Overall Analysis: 2025 Data Shows Consistent Trends
Compared with national flood data from 2010–2016, which recorded non- palm oil producing provinces as flood epicenters (8), the 2025 trend shows a consistent pattern:
- The provinces with the most flooding cases are non-oil palm centers
- Palm oil producing provinces do not dominate the flood list
- The main contributing factors are extreme weather, urbanization, and watershed damage.
Based on analysis of the latest BNPB data up to December 2025, hydrological studies, and international studies:
- Flooding is a global and multidimensional phenomenon, not caused by a single commodity
- Provinces with oil palm centers are not included in the top list of provinces with highest flooding incidents in Indonesia
- Watershed management, urbanization, and extreme rainfall are key factors
- Good palm oil management not only reduces flood risk but also increases water infiltration. (*)
¹ IPCC – AR6 WG1 (Physical Science Basis) – Chapter Extreme Weather (PDF).
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf
² BNPB – Dataset Kejadian Bencana (2008–2025) – Data Banjir per Provinsi.
https://data.bnpb.go.id/dataset/data-bencana-indonesia
³ Databoks Katadata – Statistik BNPB: Provinsi Paling Sering Dilanda Banjir hingga 28 Nov 2025
https://databoks.katadata.co.id/lingkungan/statistik/6929073762d6b/banjir-bencana-yang-paling-banyak-terjadi-di-indonesia-per-28-november-2025
⁴ BMKG – Analisis Curah Hujan Bulanan (menampilkan tren hujan ekstrem 2024–2025). https://www.bmkg.go.id/iklim/analisis-hujan.bmkg
⁵ Bappenas – Indonesia Urbanization Sector Review (World Bank × Bappenas). https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051523092937313/pdf/P1781220bf36750f00936206e3863179e5e.pdf
⁶ KLHK – Status DAS Indonesia (DAS Prioritas & DAS Kritis). https://perpustakaan.menlhk.go.id/jelajah/index.php?p=fstream&fid=7513&bid=4354
⁷ CIFOR – Oil Palm and Hydrological Impacts (2020). https://www.cifor.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/09/PO-Palm-Oil-and-Hydrology.pdf
8 BNPB (2017) – Akumulasi Jumlah Bencana Banjir di Indonesia Tahun 2010 – 2016. attachment
