JAKARTA – Indonesia is set for more consistent rain next month, providing relief from wildfires that have spewed toxic smoke across Singapore and Malaysia in recent weeks.

Rainfall has picked up across Indonesia in recent days, helping to replenish soil moisture after months of severe drought triggered by El Niño, according to Atmospheric G2. The choking haze from Indonesia’s worst fire season in years has cloaked local towns and drifted across neighboring countries for weeks, closing schools, grounding flights and pushing air quality to hazardous levels.

Indonesia has received less than a quarter of its normal rainfall since June, according to Atmospheric G2, leaving the landscape bone-dry and making fires far harder to control.

“Substantial rainfall should fall through November, generally increasing further in December and remaining significant into early 2027,” said Andreas Vallgren, an agronomist at Ignitia, a weather-forecasting company.

Over recent weeks, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore have frequently topped the rankings of the world’s most polluted cities, according to data from IQAir. The transboundary haze has become a recurring regional crisis during dry seasons, affecting millions of people across Southeast Asia and prompting calls for stronger cross-border cooperation.

Indonesia’s agricultural activity has been impacted. Smog from the wildfires is impairing the activity of weevils that pollinate oil palms in the world’s biggest producer of the commodity. The combination of fires and dry weather has prompted the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) to trim its production estimates for next year to 56 million tons, down from an earlier forecast of 58 million tons.

Still, forecasts point to improving conditions. Near-normal rainfall is expected next month, helping to prevent new fires from developing and curb the spread of existing blazes. There are rising chances of monthly rainfall exceeding 300mm in parts of South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan in December, BMKG said.

Indonesian authorities are hopeful the fire crisis can be resolved in November, said Budi Harsoyo, a senior official at the country’s national weather agency, BMKG. The returning rains are expected to gradually clear the transboundary haze that has blanketed the region, bringing relief to communities affected by the transboundary haze.

One wildcard risk, said Ignitia’s Vallgren, is that the persistence of fires and smoke can crimp rainfall, because the smog blocks sunrays and inhibits cloud formation.

“There is a feedback loop — more fires mean more smoke, which can act to suppress rainfall, which in turn can delay rainfall,” Vallgren said. On the other hand, once steady rains arrive, they can break the cycle and rapidly improve air quality across the region.

History offers a cautionary tale. In 1997, blazes that burned and grew during the prolonged dry season that year were briefly suppressed when rains finally arrived, only to reignite as the dry conditions returned. The current situation underscores the need for sustained fire prevention and peatland management, even as the rains return.