{"id":21441,"date":"2022-05-10T15:47:53","date_gmt":"2022-05-10T08:47:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/?p=21441"},"modified":"2022-05-10T15:47:53","modified_gmt":"2022-05-10T08:47:53","slug":"opinion-ukraine-war-affecting-global-vegetable-oil-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2022\/05\/10\/opinion-ukraine-war-affecting-global-vegetable-oil-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Ukraine War Affecting Global Vegetable Oil Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

The war in Ukraine has pushed prices of agricultural products to historically high levels, and concerns about global food security occupy headlines and world leaders\u2019 minds, as demonstrated by recent IMF and World Bank meetings. So far, much of the attention has focused on grains, particularly wheat\u2014because of its importance in diets, and the predicament of countries where wheat accounts for a large share of calories consumed, is largely imported, and is dominated by supplies from the Black Sea.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Here, we focus on another important, emerging food security issue: The war’s impact on vegetable oils. The Black Sea countries are large exporters of sunflower oil, and the crisis has pushed vegetable oils prices significantly higher, and also triggered trade policy responses around the world that further restrict supplies and raise prices.<\/p>\n

This post examines the unfolding impacts on the global market for vegetable oils, including additional factors affecting prices such as biofuel policies and export restrictions in the Black Sea and elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Vegetable oils are a key item in diets around the world and an essential source of fats, accounting for about 10% of daily caloric food supply (300 kcal per day per person), making them the second most important food group after cereals. Vegetable oils are also a nutritional source of omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids and vitamins E and K. Vegetable oils are, of course, an essential cooking item, particularly for poor consumers unable to shift to more expensive butter or other animal fat-based products.<\/p>\n

As with a number of other commodities, prices for many vegetable oils were at very high levels prior to the invasion in February. Since then, vegetable oil prices have risen by almost 30% in average.<\/p>\n

Sunflower oil has been most directly affected with an increase of more than 40% since the day of the invasion. It accounts for about 13% of vegetable oils traded in global markets, and Ukraine and Russia account for about 50 and 25%, respectively, of the sunflower oil traded in the world. Since vegetable oils require little or no processing, high prices have already been passed through to consumers, and some retail shortages have been reported.<\/p>\n

Vegetable oil overview<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vegetable oils are heavily traded, with imports representing about 40% of global consumption, especially when compared to other commodities, e.g. less than 20% for grains. Three-quarters of countries depend on world markets for at least half of their domestic needs.<\/p>\n

As a result, most countries are more exposed to vegetable oil export shocks compared to cereals, which are less traded and in which many countries are relatively self-sufficient.<\/p>\n

Together, palm oil (58%), soybean oil (14%), sunflower oil (13%), and rapeseed (canola) oil (7%) account for 92% of vegetable oils traded in world markets on average between 2019 and 2021. The remaining 8% includes diverse, locally important oils such as olive oil, cottonseed oil, peanut oil, safflower oil, and palm kernel oil.<\/p>\n

Indonesia and Malaysia accounted for 92% of total palm oil exports over 2019-2021. Major soybean oil exporters include Argentina (46% of global exports over the period), Brazil (10%), the European Union (8%), and the United States (8%). Canada is the major exporter of rapeseed (canola) oil, accounting for 58% of rapeseed oil exports, but Russia (13%), EU (8%), and Belarus (7%) are also important exporters.<\/p>\n

Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, global vegetable oil supplies had tightened due to a variety of factors. Drought in South America has caused a sharp reduction in soybean yields, particularly for its largest producer, Brazil. As a result, soybean exports for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay are forecast to decline by 5% from last year\u2019s levels and vegetable oil exports are estimated to be largely unchanged.<\/p>\n

Malaysia palm production declined due to the impacts of Typhoon Rai in Dec. 2021 and continuing acute labor shortages and other issues the industry has faced since 2019, amplified by the COVID-19 restrictions on worker mobility. Drought-impacted Canadian rapeseed production for 2021\/22 declined 35% from the previous year, despite an 8% increase in planted area. As a result, Canada\u2019s rapeseed exports are estimated to fall by 50%, and rapeseed oil exports down year-over-year by 20%.<\/p>\n

Then came the invasion. For vegetable oils, the most immediate global disruptions came in exports of sunflower oil. Important markets include India, the EU, and China, which together account for over 75% of total Ukraine exports. Port closures have prevented roughly half of the sunflower oil that typically would have been exported from last year’s harvest from leaving in the country; the only alternative is more costly routes to the west through Romania or Poland.<\/p>\n

Processing facilities remain disrupted, and much of Ukraine’s sunflower farming area lies to the east of the Dnieper River where much of the fighting has now Russian exports are currently limited under the joint effects of maritime trade disruption in the Black Sea, the implementation of an export quota by Russian authorities and the effects of sanctions on business transactions.<\/p>\n

Vegetable oils vary in flavor and uses for different foods, but are largely substitutable for many purposes. As a result, vegetable oil prices tend to move together. Nonetheless, substitutions can create headaches for food manufacturers because of allergy issues and national labeling requirements. For example, France recently announced that food manufacturers could substitute sunflower oil in their products but must give consumers a basic indication of any recipe change within two months. At the end, these adjustments will create production bottlenecks and some shortages, while increasing production costs and at the end, prices for consumers.<\/p>\n

Biodiesel worsens supply shortages<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another issue affecting global vegetable oil supplies and prices is the recent growth of biodiesel capacity. Driven largely by regulations that mandate their blending in fuel supplies and subsidies encouraging their use, production of biodiesel fuels has grown over the past 20 years from less than 1% of total vegetable oil use in 2003 to almost 15% today. Major programs include the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil (primarily soybean oil), Indonesia and Malaysia (palm oil), the EU and Canada (primarily rapeseed oil and palm oil).<\/p>\n

Major programs include the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil (primarily soybean oil), Indonesia and Malaysia (palm oil), and the EU and Canada (primarily rapeseed oil and palm oil).<\/p>\n

Biodiesel mandates are putting additional pressure on global vegetable oil prices. Because of mandates, demand for vegetable oils as a feedstock for biodiesel production is fairly unresponsive to changes in prices. As a result, price volatility tends to increase when supplies are short.<\/p>\n

Export restrictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Amid the current crisis, trade restrictions imposed by major vegetable oil exporters have increased price volatility and with it, the vulnerability of food-insecure households around the world. Calculations based on IFPRI’s Export Restrictions Tracker indicate that about 43% of vegetable oils traded in global markets are affected by some form of export restriction.<\/p>\n

After implementing a progressive import levy on palm oil in March, Indonesia announced an export ban on crude and refined palm oil, starting April 28. How long that ban will remain in place is unclear, but restrictions will further compound the import needs of other countries, such as India and Bangladesh, which depend heavily on palm oil to meet their consumption needs.<\/p>\n

Export restrictions have also disrupted the soybean oil market. On March 13, Argentina restricted exports of soybean oil and meal, then altered course on March 31, permitting exports but raising export taxes on those products from\u00a031% to 33%.<\/p>\n

All of these factors have contributed to keeping vegetable oil prices at record levels, and increased for countries.<\/p>\n

Conclusions<\/strong><\/p>\n

As with other key commodities affected by the war, higher prices will have an adverse impact on consumers, particularly those poorest households already threatened by food insecurity.<\/p>\n

How long high prices persist will depend much on how quickly peace returns to Ukraine and how long its agricultural economy takes to recover. Under the best of circumstances, however, prices are likely to remain high throughout this year and into 2023. A survey of U.S. planting intentions suggests that\u00a0U.S. farmers intend to plant a record level of soybean area this year and early indications suggest that South American soybean production \u00a0and EU rapeseed production could rebound as well.<\/p>\n

The 31 million metric tons of vegetable oil currently converted into biodiesel globally represent an equivalent amount of calories to feed more than 320 million people per year. Thus, suspending biofuel mandates, or restricting mandates to non-edible oils or used cooking oils, could bring welcome supplies of edible vegetable oils to the market; though that is unlikely to happen given the strong political support these policies enjoy.<\/p>\n

Similarly, export restrictions threaten to exacerbate supply shortages, particularly for key vegetable oils like palm oil. As we saw in 2007\/08 and 2010\/11, such restrictions can contribute to significant increases in prices. Hopefully, restrictions such as the Indonesian ban on palm oil exports will only be temporary, and will not spread to other countries. If not, higher prices will only make it more costly for the world’s poor to meet food security and nutrition needs. (*)<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>Joseph Glauber<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em>David Laborde<\/em> are Senior Research Fellows with IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division. <\/em>Abdullah Mamun<\/em> is a Senior Research Analyst with MTID. The opinions expressed are those of the authors.<\/em><\/p>\n

Source: ifpri.org<\/p>\n

By Joseph Glauber, David Laborde and Abdullah Mamun<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The war in Ukraine has pushed prices of agricultural products to historically high levels, and concerns about global food security occupy headlines and world leaders\u2019 minds, as demonstrated by recent IMF and World Bank meetings. So far, much of the attention has focused on grains, particularly wheat\u2014because of its importance in diets, and the predicament… Opinion: Ukraine War Affecting Global Vegetable Oil Market<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21442,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","neve_meta_reading_time":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3708,3709],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication","category-recent-news"],"yoast_head":"\nOpinion: Ukraine War Affecting Global Vegetable Oil Market - 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Now Indonesia, by banning palm oil exports, has exacerbated the conditions that are driving global\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/05\/oil_palmoil_ctvnews.com_.jpg?fit=1172%2C687&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/05\/oil_palmoil_ctvnews.com_.jpg?fit=1172%2C687&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/05\/oil_palmoil_ctvnews.com_.jpg?fit=1172%2C687&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/05\/oil_palmoil_ctvnews.com_.jpg?fit=1172%2C687&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/05\/oil_palmoil_ctvnews.com_.jpg?fit=1172%2C687&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22322,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2022\/11\/15\/gapki-palm-oil-output-this-year-reaches-51-8m-tons\/","url_meta":{"origin":21441,"position":1},"title":"GAPKI: Palm Oil Output This Year Reaches 51.8m Tons","author":"admin","date":"November 15, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"BALI \u2013 The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Chairman Joko Supriyono said that Indonesia\u2019s palm oil production as of September 2022 reached 37 million tons, of which 22 million tons were exported. He said that total palm oil production this year until December 2022 is projected to reach 51.8 million\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/palmoil_tbs_musimmas.com_.png?fit=957%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/palmoil_tbs_musimmas.com_.png?fit=957%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/palmoil_tbs_musimmas.com_.png?fit=957%2C598&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/palmoil_tbs_musimmas.com_.png?fit=957%2C598&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26773,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2023\/11\/07\/ri-becomes-key-factor-in-setting-prices-of-global-vegetable-oils\/","url_meta":{"origin":21441,"position":2},"title":"RI Becomes Key Factor In Setting Prices of Global Vegetable Oils","author":"admin","date":"November 7, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"JAKARTA - Indonesia is the central point of the factors that determine the price of world vegetable oil. This was conveyed by the Director of Godrej International Dorab Mistry at the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) 2023 in Bali, Saturday 4 November. \"Indonesia's palm oil production, which is the world's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/11\/palmoil_oilpalm_voi.id_.jpg?fit=750%2C472&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/11\/palmoil_oilpalm_voi.id_.jpg?fit=750%2C472&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/11\/palmoil_oilpalm_voi.id_.jpg?fit=750%2C472&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/11\/palmoil_oilpalm_voi.id_.jpg?fit=750%2C472&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22256,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2022\/11\/07\/svoc-vegoils-producers-to-ensure-food-and-energy-security\/","url_meta":{"origin":21441,"position":3},"title":"SVOC: Vegoils Producers To Ensure Food And Energy Security","author":"admin","date":"November 7, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"BALI, Indonesia -- The G20 Sustainable Vegetable Oils Conference (SVOC), which took place on Thursday, 3 November 2022, in Bali, was a resounding success, with the participation of the most important stakeholders in the vegetable oil sector. Taking part in the conference, organized by the Indonesian government and co-organized by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Info & Activity"","block_context":{"text":"Info & Activity","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/info-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/vegoils_oil_palmoil_.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/vegoils_oil_palmoil_.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/vegoils_oil_palmoil_.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/vegoils_oil_palmoil_.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/11\/vegoils_oil_palmoil_.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26266,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2023\/04\/04\/rising-biofuel-demand-likely-to-cause-cooking-oil-shortage\/","url_meta":{"origin":21441,"position":4},"title":"Rising Biofuel Demand Likely To Cause Cooking Oil Shortage","author":"admin","date":"April 4, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A global biofuel boom is set to drive a shortage of vegetable oils\u2014used for cooking and now increasingly to power trucks and planes\u2014intensifying a debate over food versus fuel. From the US to Brazil and Indonesia, governments are embracing energy made from plants like soybeans or canola, or even animal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bioethanol_palmoil_fr.wessling-group.com_.jpg?fit=729%2C510&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bioethanol_palmoil_fr.wessling-group.com_.jpg?fit=729%2C510&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bioethanol_palmoil_fr.wessling-group.com_.jpg?fit=729%2C510&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bioethanol_palmoil_fr.wessling-group.com_.jpg?fit=729%2C510&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22446,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2022\/12\/16\/greater-cooperation-widely-open-to-improve-vegetable-oil-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":21441,"position":5},"title":"Greater Cooperation Widely Open To Improve Vegetable Oil Market","author":"admin","date":"December 16, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Nusa Dua, Bali - The Indonesian Government, the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC) and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) hosted the first Sustainable Vegetable Oil conference on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali early November 2022. The conference highlighted the role of vegetable oils in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/04\/KINERJA-BULANAN-INDUSTRI-SAWIT-INDONESIA_.jpg?fit=752%2C596&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/04\/KINERJA-BULANAN-INDUSTRI-SAWIT-INDONESIA_.jpg?fit=752%2C596&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/04\/KINERJA-BULANAN-INDUSTRI-SAWIT-INDONESIA_.jpg?fit=752%2C596&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/04\/KINERJA-BULANAN-INDUSTRI-SAWIT-INDONESIA_.jpg?fit=752%2C596&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2022\/09\/tinta_palmoil_suarasurabaya.net_.jpg?fit=955%2C548&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}