Off to a flying start<\/strong><\/p>\nThe industry started the year with strong momentum, with higher CPO prices and export revenue from 2021.<\/p>\n
However, come February 2022, it was being pressured to meet the demand following the Russia-Ukraine war that disrupted the global supply chain of sunflower oil.<\/p>\n
Together, Russia and Ukraine accounted for about 75 per cent of sunflower oil, a primary cooking oil in many parts of the world.<\/p>\n
Just when the whole world was stocking up on the edible oil amidst soaring global food inflation, Indonesia, the number one palm oil producer and exporter, announced its decision to ban palm oil exports in April to ensure the availability of food products at home.<\/p>\n
This saw Malaysia\u2019s CPO price hit a record high of RM6,873.00 per ton in May, with palm oil stocks below two million tons and exports up by 2.8 per cent to 11.47 million tons from 11.15 million tons in the first half of the year.<\/p>\n
The euphoria, however, was short-lived. Three weeks later, Indonesia\u00a0lifted its palm oil export ban.<\/p>\n
Putting the rivalry aside, under the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries, both Indonesia and Malaysia — the world\u2019s first and second largest palm oil producers and exporters — aggressively engaged with the European Union (EU) over the unfair and discriminatory claim on palm oil being the major cause of deforestation.<\/p>\n
Recently,\u00a0a provisional agreement on the European Commission\u2019s Proposal for the\u00a0Deforestation-Free Products Regulation had been reached but\u00a0Malaysia would continue to engage with the EU regarding the new regulation and future implementing rules.<\/p>\n
This, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council, is to ensure that the rules are not discriminatory and that reliance on Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil means compliance with the due diligence requirements.<\/p>\n
The Malaysian government has also officially ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on Sept 30, 2022, and\u00a0that is expected to broaden its access to new markets such as Canada, Mexico and Peru, which are not covered by any existing free trade area.<\/p>\n
Apart from increasing palm oil export to the markets, the elimination of tariffs is expected to increase Malaysian palm oil competitiveness in CPTPP member countries.<\/p>\n
Malaysia\u2019s main export markets have always been\u00a0traditionally India, China and the EU\u00a0but over the past few years, the sector has been proactively looking to break away\u00a0and drive growth in new markets, including the Middle East.<\/p>\n
CPO production, stocks, exports and price<\/strong><\/p>\nBased on October 2022 data by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia\u2019s CPO\u00a0production for January-October 2022 showed a slight improvement compared to the same period in 2021.<\/p>\n
It said during the said period, national CPO production recorded 15.15 million tons or increased marginally by 0.8 percent from\u00a015.03 million tons attained in the corresponding period of 2021.<\/p>\n
\u201cYear-on-year, palm oil stocks in October 2022 increased by 0.57 million tons\u00a0or 31.0 percent to 2.40 million tons compared to 1.83 million tons in October 2021, driven by higher CPO production and palm oil imports by 0.8 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn addition, higher opening palm oil stocks at the beginning of 2022, up by 0.35 million tons or 27.6 percent compared to the opening palm oil stocks in 2021, had also contributed to the higher palm oil stocks in October 2022 compared to October 2021,\u201d MPOB Director General Datuk Dr Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir told Bernama<\/em>.<\/p>\nHe said that\u00a0during the 10 months of 2022, exports of palm oil and other palm-based products had increased by 1.8 percent to 20.14 million tons from 19.79 million tons during the same period in 2021.<\/p>\n
Higher prices of palm oil during the said period had influenced the total export revenue, which boosted to RM110.75 billion from RM80.40 billion in January-October 2021 or surged by 37.7 percent.<\/p>\n
Exports of palm oil alone increased slightly by 0.4 percent to 12.73 million tons during January-October 2022 from 12.68 million tons previously.<\/p>\n
Due to the higher prices, export revenue of palm oil increased sharply by 36.3 percent to RM73.58 billion from RM54.00 billion during the corresponding period in 2021.<\/p>\n
CPO price during January-October 2022 was traded higher by 23.1 percent or RM988.00 to RM5,264.50 per ton as against RM4,276.50 per ton in January-October 2021, influenced by higher soybean oil and firmer Brent crude oil prices in the world market.<\/p>\n
The improved prices were also attributed to the weaker ringgit against the USA dollar, making palm oil prices more competitive than those of other competing oils, Ahmad Parveez said.<\/p>\n
For the whole year, the CPO price is expected to average at RM5,000 per ton, higher by 13.5 percent compared with RM4,407 per ton in 2021, on the back of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, labor shortages and\u00a0strong palm oil demand.<\/p>\n
Production is projected to improve slightly by 2.1 percent to 18.50 million tons in 2023 compared with 18.12 million tons in 2021, due to the expected increase in the mature planted area and favorable weather conditions.<\/p>\n
Acute labor shortage<\/strong><\/p>\nThe Malaysian palm oil industry is facing and is expected to continue facing many challenges next year. The main hurdle\u00a0is undoubtedly\u00a0the shortage of labor, which has become a perpetual issue in the oil palm plantation sector.<\/p>\n
The severe shortage of labor not only disrupted the harvesting process but also affected the manuring program of the estates as the existing workers during those times were diverted to focus more on harvesting.<\/p>\n
\u201cSince the temporary suspension of foreign worker hiring was lifted this year, production is expected to improve. However, if the manuring program was disrupted, this might limit the improvement in production because the impact of manuring generally can only be seen after 16 to\u00a018 months,\u201d\u00a0Ahmad Parveez explained.<\/p>\n
He said that the labor shortage in the oil palm industry has driven the CPO production to be significantly lower than the potential business-as-usual scenario of nearly 20 million tons.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe idea of replacing labor with mechanization has never been easy as oil palm plantations vary from one another, particularly in terms of topography.<\/p>\n
\u201cMechanization, however, is still possible and works on certain activities in the oil palm operation,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
According to the Malaysian Estate Owners Association, as of Sept 30, the total number of foreign workers deemed active in the plantation sector was 150,608 workers.<\/p>\n
Set against Peninsular Malaysia\u2019s total oil palm planted area of 2.6 million hectares, this would translate to labor to land ratio of 1:17.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo oil palm estate can sustainably operate beyond the ratio of 1:14, especially if they do not or cannot mechanize,\u201d\u00a0association president Jeffrey Ong said.<\/p>\n
He also said that\u00a0stakeholders look forward to engaging with the government and the relevant authorities to expedite the process of foreign labor recruitment.<\/p>\n
\u201cCrops are rotting on the trees and losses continue,\u201d he lamented.<\/p>\n
Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\nThe labor issue, if not addressed, would\u00a0continue to have repercussions for the industry.<\/p>\n
The La Nina rainy weather would also continue to post\u00a0challenges for production as it has been over the past three years.<\/p>\n
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Climate Prediction Centre reported that there is a 91 percent chance of the La Nina phenomenon to occur from this December to February 2023, and it may harm the palm oil quality, slow\u00a0down the production and stocks level but may give a nudge to the price.<\/p>\n
\u201cI predicted that the weather would return to neutral weather conditions in early 2023, suggesting a relatively short-lived La Nina event.\u00a0At the same time, I hope that the new\u00a0Plantation\u00a0and Commodities Minister Datuk Seri Fadillah Yusof will sense the urgency and fix the perennial problem of labor shortage in the oil palm industry.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf they do, then we can expect higher output and lower prices. Supply is already at a three-year\u00a0high,\u201d Singapore-based Palm Oil Analytics owner and co-founder Sathia Varqa said.<\/p>\n
He also said that the local currency is set to be stronger with the new government in place, making exports expensive.<\/p>\n
This, however, may be offset by higher Indonesian palm prices inflated by levies and taxes.<\/p>\n
In line with him, MIDF Research expects the ringgit to move forward\u00a0and it foresees the local currency to average stronger at RM4.30 per US dollar and end\u00a0the year 2023 at RM4.23.<\/p>\n
The research house also expects commodities prices to remain elevated despite normalizing and forecast the CPO to average at RM3,500 per ton.<\/p>\n
On buying demand in 2023, Sathia expects a slowdown from China.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the biggest demand story in 2023. When will China open up (from its zero-COVID policy)?\u201d<\/p>\n
As for the outlook on price and production, he said CPO production in 2023 would be between 18.20 and 18.50 million tons based on no reduction in the application of fertilizers, especially among the smallholders, no adverse weather impact and improvement in the labor supply situation.<\/p>\n
Price on CPO futures active month will most likely be higher at the RM4,000-4,200 levels mainly on a slower rise in production from December to the end of the first quarter of 2023. (Nurul Hanis Izmir)<\/em><\/p>\nSource: Bernama<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"KUALA LUMPUR \u2013 The palm oil industry marked its third year with a wide gap in recruitment issues, although demand and prices of crude palm oil (CPO) remained elevated in 2022 due to\u00a0geopolitical risks and as the country entered into the endemicity phase of COVID-19.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22479,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","neve_meta_reading_time":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3708,3709],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication","category-recent-news"],"yoast_head":"\n
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It has been indicated by the export decrease of unprocessed crude palm oil (CPO). \u201cExport of CPO had declined to only about 20% during the last few\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/11\/industry_palmoil_palmoillabour.network.jpg?fit=984%2C542&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/11\/industry_palmoil_palmoillabour.network.jpg?fit=984%2C542&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/11\/industry_palmoil_palmoillabour.network.jpg?fit=984%2C542&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/11\/industry_palmoil_palmoillabour.network.jpg?fit=984%2C542&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29955,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2025\/07\/07\/gapki-2025-could-become-very-tough-for-ris-palm-industries\/","url_meta":{"origin":22478,"position":2},"title":"GAPKI: 2025 Could Become Very Tough For RI\u2019s Palm Industries","author":"admin","date":"July 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"JAKARTA \u2013 Indonesia\u2019s palm oil industries are predicted to face various challenges in 2025, ranging from global pressures like the import tariff imposed by USA President Donald Trump to the structural problems inside the country. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) sees such conditions as potential factors to weaken the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Info & Activity"","block_context":{"text":"Info & Activity","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/info-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2025\/07\/mukti_sardjono_bisnis_indonesia_gapki-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2025\/07\/mukti_sardjono_bisnis_indonesia_gapki-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2025\/07\/mukti_sardjono_bisnis_indonesia_gapki-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2025\/07\/mukti_sardjono_bisnis_indonesia_gapki-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2025\/07\/mukti_sardjono_bisnis_indonesia_gapki-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30938,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2026\/01\/08\/stagnant-production-b50-may-cut-ris-palm-exports-in-2026\/","url_meta":{"origin":22478,"position":3},"title":"Stagnant Production, B50 May Cut RI\u2019s Palm Exports In 2026","author":"admin","date":"January 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"JAKARTA \u2013\u00a0Indonesia's export of crude palm oil (CPO) is projected to continue under pressures in 2026. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that that stagnant production, the increase of domestic consumption, and the implementation plan of mandatory biodiesel 50 percent (B50), are potential to limit the volume of national\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/01\/b50_biofuel_indonesia_gapki.id_.webp?fit=768%2C473&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/01\/b50_biofuel_indonesia_gapki.id_.webp?fit=768%2C473&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/01\/b50_biofuel_indonesia_gapki.id_.webp?fit=768%2C473&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/01\/b50_biofuel_indonesia_gapki.id_.webp?fit=768%2C473&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27051,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2023\/10\/03\/government-asked-not-to-intervene-regarding-indonesias-cpo-exchange\/","url_meta":{"origin":22478,"position":4},"title":"Government Asked Not to Intervene Regarding Indonesia’s CPO Exchange","author":"admin","date":"October 3, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"JAKARTA - Director of Segara Research Institute Piter Abdullah Redjalam assesses that the establishment of a crude palm oil (CPO) exchange in Indonesia is not easy. 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The government through the Ministry of Trade,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/12\/palmoil_kilang_minyak_cpo_bisnis.com_.jpg?fit=947%2C533&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/12\/palmoil_kilang_minyak_cpo_bisnis.com_.jpg?fit=947%2C533&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/12\/palmoil_kilang_minyak_cpo_bisnis.com_.jpg?fit=947%2C533&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/12\/palmoil_kilang_minyak_cpo_bisnis.com_.jpg?fit=947%2C533&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20284,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2021\/06\/24\/palm-oil-export-durty-reviewed\/","url_meta":{"origin":22478,"position":5},"title":"Palm Oil Export Durty Reviewed","author":"admin","date":"June 24, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"It has not been a year yet since the government decided to revise the crude palm oil (CPO) export duty. Progressive scheme was considered to have burdened the upstream palm oil sector as the industries have to bear the export duties and export tax. What will be the revision? The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Info & Activity"","block_context":{"text":"Info & Activity","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/info-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/06\/cpo_bisnis.com_.jpg?fit=721%2C398&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/06\/cpo_bisnis.com_.jpg?fit=721%2C398&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/06\/cpo_bisnis.com_.jpg?fit=721%2C398&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/06\/cpo_bisnis.com_.jpg?fit=721%2C398&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/04\/palmoil_scmp.jpg?fit=940%2C564&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22478"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22478\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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