![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/allies-en\/uploads\/2023\/01\/palmoil_tree_oilpalm_palmdoneright.com_.png?resize=967%2C557&ssl=1\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe peer-reviewed study, led by researchers at Australia\u2019s national science agency, CSIRO, bolsters previous research which has said humanity should expect more intense and frequent El Nino and La Nina events in the future, and more frequent swings from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina.<\/p>\n
El Nino and La Nina are naturally occurring events in the Pacific Ocean involving changes in ocean surface temperature, wind patterns and rainfall. Both events have a powerful influence on the world\u2019s weather.<\/p>\n
El Nino typically brings drier, hotter conditions to South-east Asia and Australia, while La Nina usually brings wetter and cooler conditions. They alternate every few years and, together, the two phases are known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or Enso.<\/p>\n
The latest findings by the CSIRO-led team come after the United Nations World Meteorological Organization said earlier in May that the chances of El Nino developing were 60 percent by the end of July and 80 percent by the end of September. A three-year La Nina phase petered out earlier in 2023 after being linked to record rains and flooding in Australia, South-east Asia and Pakistan.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe research provides compelling modeling evidence that climate change has already made El Nino\/La Nina more frequent and more extreme, and makes the human fingerprint on this\u00a0climate pattern a lot more clear,\u201d said lead author Wenju Cai from the CSIRO. The study was published on Thursday, 18 May 2023, in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the most substantial study to date that has used climate models to answer the question of whether greenhouse forcing was increasing the intensity of El Nino\/La Nina,\u201d he told The Straits Times.<\/p>\n
In recent decades, these events have triggered extreme heat waves, droughts and wildfires and record floods, costing lives, destroying livelihoods and leading to billions of dollars in damage.<\/p>\n
Until now, scientists had limited understanding of how man-made climate change affected El Nino and La Nina.<\/p>\n
\u201cPrevious research projected how El Nino\/La Nina will change in the future,\u201d said Dr Cai, a global expert on the links between climate change and Enso.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut it was unable to tell us whether human-caused climate change has already affected El Nino\/La Nina.\u201d<\/p>\n
So, the research team set about trying to better understand how greenhouse gas emissions were affecting El Nino and La Nina and when the impact started to occur.<\/p>\n
The research, five years in the making, involved running a complex set of 43 climate models to produce computer simulations of the earth\u2019s climate system, Dr Cai and co-author Agus Santoso, from the CSIRO and University of New South Wales, explained in a commentary on The Conversation news website published on Thursday.<\/p>\n
The research team first compared simulations from between 1901 and 1960 with those from 1961 to 2020. They found that strong El Nino and La Nina events have occurred more frequently than average since 1960 and that this finding was consistent with what has actually occurred over the same period.<\/p>\n
The team then examined climate simulations over hundreds of years before humans started releasing huge amounts of greenhouse gas emissions into the air, mainly from burning fossil fuels and deforestation, and compared these with the simulations after 1960.<\/p>\n
This analysis showed even more clearly the very strong variability in Enso after 1960 \u2013 with variability referring to a departure from the average, Dr Cai and Dr Santoso explained.<\/p>\n
The strong variability has contributed to more extreme and frequent droughts, floods, heatwaves, bush fires and storms around the world, they said.<\/p>\n
What do the findings mean for the future?<\/strong><\/p>\nGlobal warming, caused by greenhouse gases trapping growing amounts of heat in the atmosphere, has caused ocean temperatures to steadily rise. The oceans have absorbed more than 90 per cent of the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere and the global average ocean surface temperature reached a new record in April of 21.1 deg C.<\/p>\n
Warmer oceans feed more heat and moisture into the air, causing more rainfall and more powerful storms.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe now know that increased greenhouse gas activity leads up to higher Enso variability. That has far-reaching impact on societies, economies and livelihoods given Enso affects almost every continent in the world,\u201d Dr Cai said.<\/p>\n
\u201cEssentially, our legacy of accumulated greenhouse gas emissions has put us on a trajectory of more intense El Nino and La Nina events well into the future,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years will help stabilize Enso pattern in the centuries ahead.<\/p>\n
\u201cNow is the time for policymakers, resource managers and the public to start to prepare for the social and economic risks ahead,\u201d Dr Cai said. (*)<\/p>\n
Source: straitstimes.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"SINGAPORE – Climate change has made El Nino and La Nina events stronger and more frequent in recent decades, scientists say in a study that underscores mankind\u2019s growing impact on the planet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22603,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","neve_meta_reading_time":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3708,3709],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication","category-recent-news"],"yoast_head":"\n
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La Nina, which is the reverse of El Nino,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2024\/08\/la_nina_ganggu_sawitkita.id_.jpg?fit=677%2C407&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2024\/08\/la_nina_ganggu_sawitkita.id_.jpg?fit=677%2C407&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2024\/08\/la_nina_ganggu_sawitkita.id_.jpg?fit=677%2C407&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31056,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2026\/02\/12\/scientists-possible-el-nino-may-lead-to-highest-heat-in-2027\/","url_meta":{"origin":23188,"position":2},"title":"Scientists: Possible El Ni\u00f1o May Lead To Highest Heat In 2027","author":"admin","date":"February 12, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Weather agencies and climate scientists have pointed to the possibility of an El Ni\u00f1o forming in the Pacific Ocean later this year \u2013 a phenomenon that could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027. Both the USA government\u2019s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia\u2019s Bureau of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sawit_palmoil_gapki.id__.jpg?fit=760%2C455&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sawit_palmoil_gapki.id__.jpg?fit=760%2C455&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sawit_palmoil_gapki.id__.jpg?fit=760%2C455&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sawit_palmoil_gapki.id__.jpg?fit=760%2C455&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26295,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2023\/05\/04\/luhut-predicts-return-of-2015-el-nino-calamity-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":23188,"position":3},"title":"Luhut Predicts Return of 2015 El Nino Calamity in August","author":"admin","date":"May 4, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"JAKARTA \u2013 Maritime and Investment Coordinating Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan has asked all stakeholders to be prepared to take all necessary efforts to mitigate the impacts of El Nino phenomenon which is predicted to hit Indonesia again in August 2023. Minister Luhut said that drawing on Indonesia\u2019s experiences in 2015,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/allies-en\/uploads\/2023\/03\/oilpalm_foodnavigator-latam.com_.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/allies-en\/uploads\/2023\/03\/oilpalm_foodnavigator-latam.com_.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/allies-en\/uploads\/2023\/03\/oilpalm_foodnavigator-latam.com_.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/allies-en\/uploads\/2023\/03\/oilpalm_foodnavigator-latam.com_.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31480,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2026\/06\/08\/un-brace-for-super-el-nino-could-be-new-record-breaker\/","url_meta":{"origin":23188,"position":4},"title":"UN: Brace For \u201cSuper\u201d El Nino, Could Be New Record-Breaker","author":"admin","date":"June 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists fear the combined effects of El Ni\u00f1o and human-caused climate change could reshape weather around the world A new phase of the natural El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could begin in a matter of weeks, the UN has warned, boosting temperatures on a planet already under strain from climate change.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":23415,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2023\/07\/10\/palm-oil-industries-bracing-for-incoming-el-nino\/","url_meta":{"origin":23188,"position":5},"title":"Palm Oil Industries Bracing For Incoming El Nino","author":"admin","date":"July 10, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"After three years of La Nina, El Nino is predicted to return this year. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast that there is a 90% probability of the El Ni\u00f1o event will hit certain regions during the second half of 2023, setting the stage for a likely surge in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/allies-en\/uploads\/2023\/07\/palm-oil_elnino_bwbx.io_.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/allies-en\/uploads\/2023\/07\/palm-oil_elnino_bwbx.io_.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/allies-en\/uploads\/2023\/07\/palm-oil_elnino_bwbx.io_.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/01\/palmoil_tree_oilpalm_palmdoneright.com_.png?fit=967%2C557&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22603"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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