JAKARTA – Indonesia\u2019s dry season could begin earlier than usual this year, with the onset forecast between April and June 2026 and a peak expected in August, the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said on Wednesday (04\/03\/2026).<\/p>\n
BMKG Chairman Teuku Faisal Fathani said a weak La Ni\u00f1a event that had persisted since October 2025 ended in February 2026, clearing the way for a transition toward drier conditions.<\/p>\n
Speaking at a press conference on the 2026 Dry Season Forecast Update, Teuku said the dry season is projected to begin in April in 114 seasonal zones, representing 16.3% of the country\u2019s total climate zones.<\/p>\n
In May, the dry season is expected to begin in 184 seasonal zones, or 26.3%, followed by 163 zones, or 23.3%, in June.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe dry season will start in Nusa Tenggara and gradually spread to other parts of Indonesia,\u201d Teuku said.<\/p>\n
BMKG divides Indonesia into hundreds of seasonal zones to monitor rainfall patterns and determine the onset and characteristics of the wet and dry seasons.<\/p>\n
According to the agency, 325 seasonal zones \u2014 about 46.5% of the country \u2014 are forecast to experience an earlier-than-normal start to the dry season. Meanwhile, 173 zones, or 23.7%, are expected to see the dry season begin within the normal time frame.<\/p>\n
The agency also warned of drier-than-usual conditions in many areas. Total rainfall accumulation during the dry season is projected to be below normal in 451 seasonal zones, or 64.5% of the country.<\/p>\n
Teuku added that the peak of the dry season is forecast to occur in August 2026 in 429 seasonal zones, accounting for 62.4% of all zones nationwide. (*)<\/p>\n