Scientists fear the combined effects of El Ni\u00f1o and human-caused climate change could reshape weather around the world A new phase of the natural El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could begin in a matter of weeks, the UN has warned, boosting temperatures on a planet already under strain from climate change.<\/p>\n
The World Meteorological Organization said this El Ni\u00f1o is likely to strengthen over the rest of 2026, driving more extreme weather around much of the globe. Several forecasts from national weather agencies suggest it could end up as one of the strongest ever recorded – a possible so-called \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
Predicting the exact timing and strength of El Ni\u00f1o can be challenging, and scientists have been watching conditions in a tell-tale region of the central Pacific for clues. El Ni\u00f1o forms when a switch in wind patterns allows warmer waters to spread across the tropical Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
And while an El Ni\u00f1o event had been anticipated, many scientists believe this one could be unusually powerful. \u201cWe’re very confident that there’s a big event coming,\u201d said Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office. \u201cIt may even be a record event.\u201d<\/p>\n
Part of the reason why scientists expect a strong El Ni\u00f1o lies deep below the ocean surface. Data from satellites, buoys and ocean floats indicate a huge wave of unusually warm water – more than 6C above average in places – creeping eastwards across the Pacific, hundreds of metres deep.<\/p>\n
The warmth of these waters \u201crival[s] some of the strongest El Ni\u00f1o events we have seen\u201d, said Michelle L\u2019Heureux, a physical scientist at the US science agency NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center. That deep-sea heat is often a precursor to warmer waters at the surface – which then heat the air above, helping to disrupt weather patterns worldwide.<\/p>\n
\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” said UN secretary general Ant\u00f3nio Guterres. “Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.\u201d No two El Ni\u00f1o events are the same, and different places can be affected at different times of the year.<\/p>\n
But a strong El Ni\u00f1o typically fuels hot, dry weather in parts of South America, South East Asia and Australia, raising the chances of droughts and wildfires. It can also weaken the Indian monsoon and bring drier conditions to northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa – while heavier rainfall can increase the risks of flooding in the southern USA.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o can even increase the chances of a mild start and cold end to UK winters – although its links with weather in north-west Europe are not as strong. Past events have been linked to spikes in food prices and hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars in lost income globally, as crop failures and trade disruptions ripple through supply chains and economies.<\/p>\n
As El Ni\u00f1o typically peaks in strength around Christmas time, it is impossible to know for sure that it will be a record-breaker with months still to go. El Ni\u00f1o is very sensitive to wind patterns, for example, which are difficult to predict far in advance – \u201cthe biggest wildcard\u201d for El Ni\u00f1o, according to L\u2019Heureux.<\/p>\n
But even if El Ni\u00f1o falls short of \u201csuper\u201d territory, the consequences could still be extreme. That is because we have never experienced El Ni\u00f1o on a planet already so hot from human-caused climate change. The year \u201c2027 is very likely at this point to be the [world\u2019s] warmest year on record,\u201d said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with the Berkeley Earth group in the USA.<\/p>\n
In 1998, the world had \u201can incredibly strong El Ni\u00f1o event and an incredibly hot year for the time”, he added. \u201cIf [that] happened today, it would be an incredibly cold year compared to the last two decades.\u201d \u201cIt just goes to show how big an impact humans are having on the climate.\u201d (*)<\/p>\n
Bbc.co.uk. Prepare for El Ni\u00f1o, UN warns – it could be the strongest in decades. https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/resources\/idt-54f4e985-a7fb-48b2-8246-f3be0d699402. 2 June 2026<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Scientists fear the combined effects of El Ni\u00f1o and human-caused climate change could reshape weather around the world A new phase of the natural El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could begin in a matter of weeks, the UN has warned, boosting temperatures on a planet already under strain from climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31481,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"off","neve_meta_content_width":70,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","neve_meta_reading_time":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3708,3709],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication","category-recent-news"],"yoast_head":"\n