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<\/p>\nLONDON — Global biofuels output is expected to surge nearly 70% by 2030 \u200bfrom 2025 levels as major producing countries push ahead with raising blending mandates in response to \u200cthe energy crisis triggered by the Iran war, a study published on Tuesday (22\/09\/2026) found.<\/p>\n
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The study was co-authored by London-based think tank Chatham House and non-profit certification group the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).<\/p>\n
Biofuels such as ethanol can be produced from a range of organic feedstocks but \u200bare typically made from food crops or animal feed. They are commonly blended with gasoline or diesel \u200band become more competitive as fossil fuel prices rise.<\/p>\n
The fuels have long been at the \u2060centre of debate over whether they help tackle climate change or contribute to food inflation and deforestation. The study’s \u200bauthors warned that the latest surge in demand risks worsening the latter.<\/p>\n
“By prioritizing energy security in the short term, \u200bsome policy responses may be trading off against increased food insecurity in the medium term (and) any additional shock such as extreme weather could severely affect food prices,” they said.<\/p>\n
Countries including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and the USA, along with the European Union, have proposed or \u200badopted higher biofuel blending mandates since the outbreak of the Iran war.<\/p>\n
The authors estimate that if all proposed mandates \u200bare fully implemented, the land needed to produce biofuel feedstocks could more than double by 2030 compared with 2023 levels. That \u200cwould require \u2060an additional 36 million hectares, an area roughly the size of Germany.<\/p>\n
“The speed at which biofuel mandates are being increased creates significant risks as demand for feedstocks may rise faster than environmental safeguards, certification systems, land-use planning and enforcement mechanisms can be implemented,” the authors said.<\/p>\n
They said feedstocks grown on degraded land or between crop seasons can help \u200breduce land degradation and even \u200brestore land, but that is \u2060not typically the case for conventional, or first-generation, biofuels.<\/p>\n
First-generation biofuels are made from food and feed crops such as corn and sugarcane. Second-generation, or advanced, biofuels are produced from \u200borganic residues and waste materials such as used cooking oil (UCO).<\/p>\n
“Production of feedstocks for first-generation \u200bbiofuels tends \u2060to have net negative consequences for land degradation, food security and water use,” the authors said.<\/p>\n
Crude oil prices have risen nearly 40% since the Iran war began in late February, while sugar and corn prices have gained about 20%. (*)<\/p>\n