{"id":32517,"date":"2026-10-31T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-31T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2026\/10\/31\/study-strong-el-nino-potential-cut-crop-yields-10-asean\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T15:44:46","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T08:44:46","slug":"study-strong-el-nino-potential-cut-crop-yields-10-asean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2026\/10\/31\/study-strong-el-nino-potential-cut-crop-yields-10-asean\/","title":{"rendered":"Study: Strong El Nino Potential To Cut Crop Yields By 10% In ASEAN"},"content":{"rendered":"

Average crop production in South-east Asia could fall by up to 10 per cent in years with very strong El Nino events, according to a new study by the Singapore Food Agency (SFA) and the National University of Singapore (NUS)[1][2]<\/sup>. Drier and hotter weather caused by the climate phenomenon is likely to affect rice production the most out of the five major crops assessed, according to the ASEAN Agri Climate Impact Twenty (AACIT) study[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Strong El Nino Potential To Cut Crop Yields By 10 Per Cent In ASEAN<\/h2>\n

The study, jointly conducted by the Singapore Food Agency (SFA) and the National University of Singapore\u2019s Tropical Marine Science Institute, was presented as part of the 48th Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (AMAF) and related meetings on Oct 29[2]<\/sup>. Among its key findings are that South-east Asia is projected to have more frequent and longer heatwaves in the coming years, though rainfall patterns are likely to vary across locations and time[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

This means climate change will not affect all parts of ASEAN in the same way, with some areas experiencing heavier rainfall and flooding while others may face prolonged dry spells or greater drought stress[2]<\/sup>. Adaptation measures to climate change will therefore need to consider local conditions, crop types and planting seasons, said a factsheet on the AACIT study released by SFA and NUS[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

The study on climate change and crop production, which was started in 2024, combined climate information with crop modelling to project changes in the region\u2019s crop production from 2025 to 2044[2]<\/sup>. It found that rice, maize and sugarcane are projected to see a drop in average crop production in the next two decades, while the yields for cassava and soya bean could rise[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

However, even the crops with more favorable projected yields are not free from climate-related risks, as their production could still be affected by variation in climate conditions in a particular year, such as extreme heat, heavy rainfall or drought[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

The study also found that ASEAN\u2019s crop yields could vary widely between years, depending on the weather[2]<\/sup>. For instance, rice production could rise by 4 per cent in good years and fall by 15 per cent in bad years. Meanwhile, soya bean yields could increase by as much as 30 per cent in favorable years, and decline by 5 per cent in unfavorable years[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

South-east Asia is responsible for over a quarter of global rice production and 40 per cent of international rice exports, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization[3]<\/sup>. The Straits Times has asked SFA for more information on the full study[1]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

ASEAN Food Security And Climate Adaptation<\/h2>\n

Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu said on Oct 29 that the study will strengthen ASEAN member states\u2019 collective understanding of the climate risks facing their food systems, and highlight pathways to enhance adaptation and resilience[2]<\/sup>. Speaking at the opening of the 48th AMAF meeting, Fu said climate change, geopolitical developments, supply chain disruptions, and emerging pests and animal diseases underscore the need for countries to strengthen their food systems[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur challenges are interconnected, and addressing them requires collective action,\u201d she said. \u201cFor example, supporting farmers to reduce reliance on slash-and-burn practices and adopt more sustainable and productive agricultural practices can yield benefits for both our environmental sustainability and food security.\u201d[2]<\/sup><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The 2026 AMAF meeting saw Singapore take over as chair from the Philippines. The city-state will take on the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2027[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Fu said that as AMAF chair, addressing climate change will be a priority. Singapore will table a concept note on the Food Security Resilience Pact 2045. This will provide a long-term framework to strengthen the grouping in areas such as food availability, climate adaptation, technology, supply chains, emergency preparedness and financing[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy working together and taking a holistic approach, ASEAN can build more sustainable and resilient food systems,\u201d she said[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Expressing a similar sentiment, Philippine Secretary of Agriculture Francisco Laurel noted at the meeting that climate change, disruptions in global supply chains and rising uncertainty in international markets continue to put pressure on ASEAN\u2019s food systems and the livelihoods of farmers, fishermen and rural communities[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese challenges have reinforced one important lesson: Food security cannot be pursued by individual countries alone,\u201d said the outgoing AMAF chairman. \u201cIt requires stronger regional board cooperation, collective action and sustained commitment.\u201d[2]<\/sup><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Prior to the meeting, Fu and Japan\u2019s State Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Fujiki Shinya exchanged a renewed memorandum of cooperation in the agriculture and food sector between Singapore and Japan[2]<\/sup>. The agreement provides a framework for both countries to work more closely on agriculture and food technologies, food security and emergency preparedness, and the international commerce of food, said a statement from the Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Addressing climate change, Fu noted that the global agri-food landscape is rapidly changing because of climate change, supply chain vulnerabilities and increasing pressure on resources such as land and water[2]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have an opportunity to focus on what comes next. For example, how can we mobilize investment into projects that strengthen food systems? And how can we bring solutions to more farmers, businesses and communities across the region?\u201d[2]<\/sup><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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    \n
  1. Straits Times, “Strong El Nino in coming years can cut crop yields by up to 10%, says study on ASEAN agriculture”, 29 Oct 2026. https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/singapore\/strong-el-nino-in-coming-years-can-cut-crop-yields-by-up-to-10-says-study-on-asean-agriculture<\/a><\/li>\n
  2. Singapore Food Agency (SFA) \/ National University of Singapore Tropical Marine Science Institute, “ASEAN Agri Climate Impact Twenty (AACIT) study” factsheet, presented at 48th AMAF, 29 Oct 2026.<\/li>\n
  3. UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) \u2014 South-east Asia rice production and export share.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Strong El Nino could cut ASEAN crop yields by up to 10%, with rice most affected, per a new SFA-NUS study. 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The peer-reviewed study, led by researchers at Australia\u2019s national science agency, CSIRO, bolsters previous research which has said\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/01\/palmoil_tree_oilpalm_palmdoneright.com_.png?fit=967%2C557&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/01\/palmoil_tree_oilpalm_palmdoneright.com_.png?fit=967%2C557&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/01\/palmoil_tree_oilpalm_palmdoneright.com_.png?fit=967%2C557&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/01\/palmoil_tree_oilpalm_palmdoneright.com_.png?fit=967%2C557&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31316,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2026\/04\/27\/ri-sets-up-asean-center-for-transboundary-haze-control\/","url_meta":{"origin":32517,"position":1},"title":"RI Sets Up ASEAN Center For Transboundary Haze Control","author":"admin","date":"April 27, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"JAKARTA \u2013 Minister of Environment\/ Head of the Environmental Management Agency (KLH\/BPLH), Hanif Faisol Nurofiq, inaugurated the Secretariat Office of the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control (ACC THPC) at the KLH\/BPLH Office on Jl. D.I Panjatian Kav 24, Kebon Nanas, East Jakarta. The inauguration marks Indonesia's strategic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/04\/indonesia_pencegahan_karhutla_ilustrasi_gapki.id_.jpg?fit=1200%2C758&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/04\/indonesia_pencegahan_karhutla_ilustrasi_gapki.id_.jpg?fit=1200%2C758&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/04\/indonesia_pencegahan_karhutla_ilustrasi_gapki.id_.jpg?fit=1200%2C758&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/04\/indonesia_pencegahan_karhutla_ilustrasi_gapki.id_.jpg?fit=1200%2C758&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/04\/indonesia_pencegahan_karhutla_ilustrasi_gapki.id_.jpg?fit=1200%2C758&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26383,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2023\/09\/08\/el-nino-expected-to-cut-asian-crops-including-palm-oil\/","url_meta":{"origin":32517,"position":2},"title":"El Nino Expected To Cut Asian Crops, Including Palm Oil","author":"admin","date":"September 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"SINGAPORE - An unusually dry August has taken a toll on cereal and oilseed crops in Asia as El Nino intensified, and forecasts for lower rainfall in September are further threatening to disrupt supplies. While wheat output forecasts are being revised lower due to dry weather in Australia, the world's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/09\/palmoil_plantation_kompas.com_.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/09\/palmoil_plantation_kompas.com_.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/09\/palmoil_plantation_kompas.com_.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/dir-site\/uploads\/2023\/09\/palmoil_plantation_kompas.com_.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27279,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2024\/01\/12\/forest-fires-2023-drops-30-80\/","url_meta":{"origin":32517,"position":3},"title":"Forest Fires 2023 Drops 30.80%","author":"admin","date":"January 12, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"JAKARTA \u2013 Indonesia managed to reduce forest and land fires (Karhutla) during 2023 by 30.80% compared to those of 2019 with almost the same impact of El-Nino but weather condition in 2023 was drier, the ministry of environment and forestry (KLHK) reported. The ministry\u2019s Climate Change Control Director General Laksmi\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/11\/forest_fires_phys.org_.jpg?fit=1016%2C619&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/11\/forest_fires_phys.org_.jpg?fit=1016%2C619&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/11\/forest_fires_phys.org_.jpg?fit=1016%2C619&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2021\/11\/forest_fires_phys.org_.jpg?fit=1016%2C619&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31480,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2026\/06\/08\/un-brace-for-super-el-nino-could-be-new-record-breaker\/","url_meta":{"origin":32517,"position":4},"title":"UN: Brace For \u201cSuper\u201d El Nino, Could Be New Record-Breaker","author":"admin","date":"June 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists fear the combined effects of El Ni\u00f1o and human-caused climate change could reshape weather around the world A new phase of the natural El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could begin in a matter of weeks, the UN has warned, boosting temperatures on a planet already under strain from climate change.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/06\/cooler_thumb_warner___.jpg?fit=1200%2C543&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31856,"url":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/2026\/08\/23\/metmalaysia-el-nino-will-start-impacting-oil-palm-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":32517,"position":5},"title":"MetMalaysia: El Ni\u00f1o Will Start Impacting Oil Palm Next Year","author":"ZA Hermes","date":"August 23, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"SEREMBAN -- The impact of the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon on commodity crop yields, especially palm oil, usually manifests several months after prolonged hot weather and reduced rainfall. Plantation and Commodities Minister Datuk Seri Dr Noraini Ahmad said the ministry and relevant agencies are actively monitoring field operations and production trends\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Publication"","block_context":{"text":"Publication","link":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/news\/category\/publication\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/08\/palmoil_tbs_thegreedmalaysia.jpg?fit=1052%2C537&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/08\/palmoil_tbs_thegreedmalaysia.jpg?fit=1052%2C537&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/08\/palmoil_tbs_thegreedmalaysia.jpg?fit=1052%2C537&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/08\/palmoil_tbs_thegreedmalaysia.jpg?fit=1052%2C537&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/08\/palmoil_tbs_thegreedmalaysia.jpg?fit=1052%2C537&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gapki.id\/en\/dir-site\/uploads\/2026\/10\/featured_image_gapki.id___.jpg?fit=847%2C462&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32517"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32517\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32521,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32517\/revisions\/32521"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gapki.id\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}