JAKARTA – Forest and land fires (karhutla) are back in the spotlight as drought risk rises with the El Niño phenomenon in 2026. Yet understanding karhutla requires more than looking at the area burned or pointing to a single culprit. Fire is a complex phenomenon shaped by climate conditions, land characteristics, human activity, and regional governance.

Data shows that forest and land fires are not a phenomenon confined to Indonesia. The United States and European Union countries also face fires spanning millions of hectares. At the same time, Indonesia’s peatland characteristics mean fires can produce very large smoke and emission impacts.

Addressing karhutla therefore needs to rest on data, objective evidence, and a prevention approach involving all stakeholders.

PART 01

Karhutla as a Global Phenomenon

Forest and land fires occur in many countries with different ecosystem characteristics and climate conditions. Monitoring data shows that the United States and the European Union also experience fires on a large scale.

Below is a comparison of the area burned in Indonesia, the United States, and the European Union:

Source: SiPongi, National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), and European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS).

In 2023, the area burned in Indonesia was recorded at around 1.16 million hectares, while the United States reached about 1.09 million hectares. These figures show that large-scale fires also occur in countries with relatively advanced fire monitoring and response systems.

The European Union even recorded its worst fire season since the EFFIS system began in 2025, with more than one million hectares burned.

Even so, cross-country comparisons need to be read proportionally. Definitions of burned areas, mapping methods, ecosystem characteristics, and fire causes are not always identical. Indonesia faces its own challenges, particularly peatlands that can store and sustain fire beneath the soil surface.

Thus, karhutla is not a problem that can be attached to a single country, ecosystem, or commodity.

PART 02

El Niño, Peatlands, and Land-Clearing Activity

The scale of fire impacts in Indonesia cannot be separated from the interaction between climate conditions, land characteristics, and human activity.

El Niño can prolong dry periods and reduce rainfall. Such conditions increase the vulnerability of vegetation and organic material on the soil surface to fire.

During the 2015 fire season — one of the worst periods in satellite observation history — scientific research found that fire activity in Indonesia had a nonlinear relationship with drought levels. The longer the rainless period, the greater the potential increase in fire activity, particularly on degraded peatlands.

This becomes more complex when fire is used to clear or prepare land. If flames reach the peat layer, burning can continue underground and is difficult to extinguish with conventional methods.

Research on fires in Sumatra in 2013 also showed that large emissions from peat fires can occur even without extreme drought.

In other words, karhutla prevention cannot rely solely on weather monitoring. Peat hydrology management, restoration of degraded land, and oversight of land-clearing activity must be part of a long-term strategy.

PART 03

Indonesia’s Fire Trends and the Progress of Control Efforts

Historical data shows that the area of forest and land fires in Indonesia fluctuates from year to year. Significant increases generally occur when climate conditions bring prolonged drought.

Below is the development of Indonesia’s karhutla area across selected years:

Source: SiPongi, Ministry of Forestry.

The data shows that fire peaks have declined, from around 2.61 million hectares in 2015 to 1.65 million hectares in 2019 and about 1.16 million hectares in 2023.

This decline is a notable development in karhutla control efforts. However, the contribution of each factor — such as changes in rainfall, peat restoration, law enforcement, and weather modification operations — still needs to be examined separately so policy effectiveness can be measured objectively.

That difference shows the importance of agreed mapping methodology and data transparency. Consistent data is needed so that fire control progress can be evaluated more accurately.

PART 04

Oil Palm Plantations in the Fire Map: The Importance of Evidence-Based Attribution

The link between oil palm plantations and karhutla is often debated. In discussing this issue, it is important to distinguish between the location of fires, the original source of ignition, and the party responsible.

Hotspots detected by satellites indicate locations of heat activity; they do not automatically prove who started the fire.

Under certain conditions, fires can spread from one area to another. This can occur through surface vegetation or underground peat layers, especially when dry weather and wind support the spread.

RSPO monitoring data for its members’ concessions as of 27 October 2026 illustrates this picture:

Source: RSPO monitoring data for member concessions, as of 27 October 2026.

This data covers only RSPO members and does not represent all oil palm plantation operators in Indonesia. Nevertheless, these findings highlight the importance of monitoring the origin of fires and their spread paths before assigning attribution of responsibility.

Law enforcement confirms that every case must be handled on the basis of evidence and due legal process. Responsibility must be established proportionally based on field facts, not by generalizing all operators or commodities.

However, the plantation industry also needs to acknowledge the importance of fire prevention in concession areas.

Research on fire emissions in Indonesia shows that fires on industrial concessions — including oil palm plantations and industrial timber estates — contribute to emissions and air pollution in the Equatorial Asia region.

These findings use fire data from 2006 and are spatial in nature, showing the location of fires and their contribution to emissions, not proving the identity of those who started them.

Therefore, stronger prevention, monitoring, transparency, and compliance in concession areas are an important part of the plantation sector’s responsibility.

PART 05

Land Governance and Economic Incentives as Root Causes

Karhutla is not only related to natural factors and land-clearing activity, but is also influenced by socio-economic conditions and regional governance.

A study by CIFOR, Universitas Riau, and IPB in several districts of Riau Province found networks of actors profiting economically from land clearing by burning.

The research revealed that organizers of farmer groups could gain up to USD 486 per hectare. Land cleared by burning was also reported to have a higher sale value, around USD 856 per hectare, compared with USD 665 per hectare for land cleared without burning.

Source: CIFOR, Universitas Riau, and IPB study in Riau Province.

This happens because land cleared by fire is considered more ready for planting. Such practices develop particularly in open-access areas, abandoned concessions, and regions with unclear land claims and control.

These findings show that karhutla is not solely about individual behaviour. Economic incentives and land governance problems can also drive burning practices.

Therefore, legal certainty over land status and boundaries, oversight of open-access areas, and incentives for farmers to apply zero-burning land clearing are an important part of karhutla prevention strategy.

PART 06

Regulatory Framework and Strengthening Fire Prevention

Indonesia already has a legal framework to prevent and address forest and land fires.

With this regulatory framework, the next challenge is ensuring consistent implementation, effective oversight, and quality evidence in handling each case.

PART 07

Six Strategic Steps for Data-Based Karhutla Control

To reduce the risk of forest and land fires, an approach combining prevention, monitoring, ecosystem restoration, and law enforcement is needed. Strategic steps that can be strengthened include:

1. Strengthen climate-based early warning systems
   Monitoring rainfall and drought development needs to be the basis for prevention measures. Meteorological information can identify high-risk areas and accelerate response before fires spread.
2. Restore peatland hydrology and ecosystems
   Peat water management, rewetting, and land-cover restoration are important steps to reduce vulnerability to fire. These efforts need to be continuous, especially on degraded peatlands.
3. Promote zero-burning land clearing
   Zero-burning land clearing methods need to be strengthened through mentoring, technology, and economic incentives for farmers, giving communities viable economic alternatives to fire.
4. Strengthen evidence-based fire attribution
   Determining responsible parties needs to consider the fire’s origin and spread path. Satellite imagery and ongoing monitoring can help produce more objective conclusions.
5. Improve fire data transparency
   Reporting on fires inside and outside concession areas needs strengthening. Open data enables public verification while encouraging greater accountability among all stakeholders.
6. Build cross-sector collaboration
   Differences in mapping results between government and civil society show the need for coordination on methodology and data exchange. Government, businesses, academics, and communities need a shared body of accountable information.

PART 08

Karhutla Requires a Comprehensive Solution

Forest and land fires are a multifactor problem that cannot be explained by a single cause. Climate conditions, peat hydrology, human activity, economic incentives, and land governance all interact in determining fire risk.

International data shows that large-scale fires are not a phenomenon confined to Indonesia or linked to a single commodity. Meanwhile, national data shows a decline in burned area in several years after the 2015 peak, though control challenges remain.

For the oil palm industry, the most constructive approach is to strengthen responsibility through prevention, data openness, good land management, and regulatory compliance.

At the same time, assigning responsibility for fires must be done objectively through scientific evidence and legal process. Fire location alone does not prove who started the blaze.

Lessons from 2015

The major fires of 2015 taught that prevention is far more effective than response after flames spread. Strengthening early warning systems, peat restoration, land governance certainty, and cross-sector collaboration must be priorities in building sustainable karhutla control.

Also read on WikiSawit Fire, Climate, and Land Governance: Reading Karhutla with Data.